The first link is kind of cool since it uses relevant/current data with a handy review of the concepts so you can freshen up when you visit every month or two. Of course, using the GDPNow, CFNAI, ANFCI, etc and their sub-indexes are what I suppose most of us already overloaded defined contribution drudges use to keep an eye on this sort of stuff, but, if that wasn't enough, then take off with this:
The recent air-freight data is definitely gliding down, but, reasons are a tangled up mess, which if it were just limited to any single problem, it wouldn't seem like there would be much to worry about. But the sheer multitude of global problems added together suggests unanticipated emergent risks/events are likely. Something like an untrained crew of half-crocked potato farmers being put in charge of an air-defense missile system comes to mind.
Watched a Stanley Druckenmiller interview video the other day and one of the ways he said he peers into the future (he seemed to be interested primarily with about a 1 year time frame, presume it is probably about the LTCGs, it is for me ...) is digging through Trucking and Homebuilder company data. Doubtless he has minions for that now days.
Go on, geek out on the TSI:
https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/9czv-tjte#freight-transportation's-relationship-to-the-economy
https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/special_reports_and_issue_briefs/special_report/2014_12_10/entire
The first link is kind of cool since it uses relevant/current data with a handy review of the concepts so you can freshen up when you visit every month or two. Of course, using the GDPNow, CFNAI, ANFCI, etc and their sub-indexes are what I suppose most of us already overloaded defined contribution drudges use to keep an eye on this sort of stuff, but, if that wasn't enough, then take off with this:
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/?Search=&EconomicsL1=149&EconomicsL2=150#searchForm
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---april-2022/
The recent air-freight data is definitely gliding down, but, reasons are a tangled up mess, which if it were just limited to any single problem, it wouldn't seem like there would be much to worry about. But the sheer multitude of global problems added together suggests unanticipated emergent risks/events are likely. Something like an untrained crew of half-crocked potato farmers being put in charge of an air-defense missile system comes to mind.
Watched a Stanley Druckenmiller interview video the other day and one of the ways he said he peers into the future (he seemed to be interested primarily with about a 1 year time frame, presume it is probably about the LTCGs, it is for me ...) is digging through Trucking and Homebuilder company data. Doubtless he has minions for that now days.